Marital Transitions and Political Behavior

By: Stone Neilon, Anand E. Sokhey, Matthew T. Pietryka

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In this early draft, we build upon previous political science research documenting the effect of
life events on political behavior, using the ANES 2016-2020-2024 panel dataset to test the effect
of marital status change on a range of political outcomes. We employ OLS and logistic regression
models with lagged dependent variables, finding that moving from unmarried to married is associated
with more liberal attitudes and a greater belief that women experience discrimination in the United
States. Respondents who moved from married to divorced are associated with reduced ideological
extremity. We find no statistically significant effects (p < .05) for respondents moving from married to
widowed; however, suggestive evidence emerges at the p < .10 level for political discussion networks, religious importance, and political affect. We propose two mechanisms through which marital status change exerts its effects: psychological processes and alterations in social networks. Future iterations will include additional model specifications and alternative data sources to better characterize the relationship between marital status change and political behavior.