2026 Graduate Publications

Synergies between interventions: The Cadastro Ambiental Rural (CAR) and REDD+ in the Brazilian Amazon

Avery Lord — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 17:33:17 +0000

Synergies between interventions: The Cadastro Ambiental Rural (CAR) and REDD+ in the Brazilian Amazon Avery Lord Thu, 06/18/2026 - 11:33

Synergies between interventions: The Cadastro Ambiental Rural (CAR) and REDD+ in the Brazilian Amazon

By: Adriana Molina-Garzón, Carolina Gueiros, Erin O Sills

Abstract:

Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has declined since 2023, yet the durability of these gains depends in part on whether smallholders, who face persistent institutional and financial barriers, can comply with environmental regulations such as Brazil’s Rural Environmental Registry (Cadastro Ambiental Rural, CAR). This study provides one of the first empirical tests of whether a national regulatory instrument (CAR) and a subnational incentive-based intervention (REDD+) reinforce one another in practice for smallholders. Using panel data from CIFOR’s Global Comparative Study on REDD+ (2010, 2014, 2018), we estimate inverse-probability-weighted logistic models to assess the association between REDD+ participation and CAR uptake, and weighted fixed-effects models to examine whether forest cover trajectories differ systematically across REDD+ participants depending on subsequent CAR registration, allowing for heterogeneity by baseline forest cover. Our results indicate that REDD+ participation was associated with higher CAR uptake primarily among smallholders already engaged in REDD+ by 2014, with little evidence of additional post-2014 registration once baseline CAR status is accounted for. Neither REDD+ nor CAR alone produced consistent changes in forest cover. However, joint REDD+ and CAR participation was associated with higher forest cover in 2014 and 2018. These complementarities vary by baseline land-use conditions: large early gains occurred in high-forest landholdings, modest short-lived effects in medium-forest landholdings, and delayed but positive effects in low-forest properties. While results depend on assumptions regarding unobserved baseline CAR registration, the findings suggest that CAR registration operates as a pathway through which REDD+ may influence forest outcomes under specific land-use conditions and time frames. Overall, the study advances understanding of how regulatory and incentive-based policy mixes operate for smallholders in Amazonian conservation.

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Environmental motivations in an ongoing PES program in the Colombian Amazon

Avery Lord — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 17:30:16 +0000

Environmental motivations in an ongoing PES program in the Colombian Amazon Avery Lord Thu, 06/18/2026 - 11:30

Environmental motivations in an ongoing PES program in the Colombian Amazon

By: Adriana Molina-Garzón, Lina M Moros, Santiago Izquierdo-Tort, Ivan Savin, Esteve Corbera

Abstract:

Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) are often regarded as incentive-based environmental policy programs that can potentially “crowd out” participants’ intrinsic conservation motivations. However, conservation motivations may also coexist and reinforce each other under certain program designs, implementation practices and household contexts. In contrast to studies focusing on post-program persistence, this article examines motivational dynamics while incentives are active. We study whether reported intrinsic and extrinsic motivations move in opposite directions or coexist among households enrolled in Colombia’s Amazon Forest Incentive Program (IFA) in a high-deforestation risk region during the study period. Using two-wave panel survey data (2022–2023) from 144 program participants and 43 eligible non-participants of an ongoing program, we relate within-household changes in motivations to three exposure measures: participation status, the number of payments received, and the share of PES payments relative to household income. Participation was associated with stronger guilt-related motivation, while a higher payment-to-income share (payment salience) was associated with stronger intrinsic motivations linked to self-image, identity, and moral responsibility. The number of payments received showed weak and inconsistent associations with intrinsic motivations. Higher payment salience was also associated with greater recognition of payments as a conservation incentive without evidence of displacement of intrinsic motivations over the study period, supporting a coexistence interpretation rather than a simple trade-off. Overall, the results highlight associations between payment salience, structural context, and motivational dynamics.

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Not Me, Us: Political Parasocial Relationships in the Digital Age

Avery Lord — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 16:33:26 +0000

Not Me, Us: Political Parasocial Relationships in the Digital Age Avery Lord Thu, 06/18/2026 - 10:33

Not Me, Us: Political Parasocial Relationships in the Digital Age

By: Samantha Register

Abstract:

Social scientists have studied parasocial relationships since the 1950s, often in the con
text of television talk shows or popular soap opera characters. However, researchers have only
examined the phenomenon of political parasocial relationships in recent years, and many of these
studies focus on Donald Trump. Furthermore, little research exists on how these relationships af
fect political participation. I argue firstly that the nature of one-sided relationships voters form
with politicians has changed due to advancements in communications technology and changes in
our media environment, including social media. Additionally, these relationships affect voters’
real-world behaviors, including both political discussions and campaign involvement. Using an
updated version of the Rubin et al. (1985) Parasocial Interaction Index, I find that strength of parti
sanship and political interest predict strength of parasocial attachment to a politician. Other factors,
like demographic similarities and attitudes towards government, are more important in the forma
tion of parasocial relationships with specific political figures. Next, in an examination of public
communications from Members of Congress, I find that social media posts that include “person
alized content” receive more engagement from followers and are more effective at strengthening
parasocial bonds for voters who share a candidate’s political ideology. Finally, based on obser
vational data from a nationally representative survey and results from a survey experiment using
the Colorado Political Climate Survey, I find that strength of parasocial attachment to a political
figure is correlated with both traditional and online modes of political participation. Furthermore,
exposure to certain types of personalized content from a politician when interacted with strength of
parasocial attachment results in greater intent to participate in a political campaign. These results
emphasize the importance of public image and communications strategies for inspiring political
participation in our current information environment

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Who Claims Fraud? Correlates of State Legislators' Voter Fraud Claims

Avery Lord — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 16:31:35 +0000

Who Claims Fraud? Correlates of State Legislators' Voter Fraud Claims Avery Lord Thu, 06/18/2026 - 10:31

Who Claims Fraud? Correlates of State Legislators' Voter Fraud Claims

By: Samantha Register, Srinivas Parinandi, Alexandra A Siegel

Abstract:

State legislators play a key role in election administration, but have increasingly challenged the legitimacy of elections. Using a dataset of tweets from over 4200 state legislators, we examine the institutional, individual, and state-level factors associated with legislators' propensity to make electoral fraud claims from 2019 to 2022, a period characterized by heightened criticism of status quo electoral procedure. We find that Republican partisanship, state polarization, serving in a state with a higher nonwhite population, and belonging to the state's upper chamber are correlated with more frequent election fraud tweets. Meanwhile, legislative professionalism, committee leadership, unified government, and being a female legislator are associated with making fewer fraud claims. By shifting attention from Congress to state legislatures—institutions that directly oversee election rules and administration—we identify correlates of public contestation of electoral procedure among subnational elites.

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How Group Meta-Perceptions Shape Political Party Evolution

Avery Lord — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 15:16:28 +0000

How Group Meta-Perceptions Shape Political Party Evolution Avery Lord Thu, 06/18/2026 - 09:16

How Group Meta-Perceptions Shape Political Party Evolution

By: Stone Neilon

Abstract:

Political science has documented the extent of (mis)perceptions among partisans, and the sub
sequent effect of these (mis)perceptions on political behavior. However, relatively little work has
examined the extent of group meta-perceptions (GMP)–defined as beliefs about how others perceive
one’s group– and their role in shaping partisan behavior. In this paper, I argue partisans hold
various GMPs and internalize characterizations from out-partisans (and Independents), altering the
perceptions of their own party and influencing their strategic preferences and affective orientations,
providing a novel explanation to issue evolution within the parties. To investigate these dynam
ics, I field an exploratory student survey asking respondents what they believe are the three most
important problems (MIP) and how they believe out-partisans would characterize them on those
same questions. I use this to inform a future experimental survey, where I expose partisans to how
out-partisans (and Independents) perceive and characterize their own party. Respondents are then
assessed on levels of affect, willingness to engage in cross-partisan discussion, and beliefs about party strategy

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Using AI to DIY? Incorporating AI-Generated Learning Tools in the Classroom

Avery Lord — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 14:00:33 +0000

Using AI to DIY? Incorporating AI-Generated Learning Tools in the Classroom Avery Lord Thu, 06/18/2026 - 08:00

Using AI to DIY? Incorporating AI-Generated Learning Tools in the Classroom

By: Christopher Jackson, Andrew Q Philips

Abstract:

Generative artificial intelligence has changed the classroom experience, for better and worse. We contend that instructors can leverage GAI to assist them in quickly creating and implementing classroom-based simulation activities and demonstrations. We use applied political science teaching examples ranging from theory to methodology to help demonstrate our point that GAI can greatly decrease the time and programming costs of creating good classroom learning tools.

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