Stone Neilon

How Do Environments Shape the Presence and Degree of Interpersonal Political Interactions?

Avery Lord — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 15:19:27 +0000

How Do Environments Shape the Presence and Degree of Interpersonal Political Interactions? Avery Lord Thu, 06/18/2026 - 09:19

How Do Environments Shape the Presence and Degree of Interpersonal Political Interactions?

By: Stone Neilon, Anand E. Sokhey, Matthew T. Pietryka

Abstract:

We investigate how two types of environments shape interpersonal political interactions: demographic environments and built environments.
We find relationships between the demographic (partisan) environment effects and both core and acquaintance network composition.
Individuals residing in counties with more Democrats (Republicans) name more Democrats (Republicans) in their core networks, as well as in their acquaintance networks.
We find little support that the built environment – at least as measured – predicts patterns of interpersonal political interaction.

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How Group Meta-Perceptions Shape Political Party Evolution

Avery Lord — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 15:16:28 +0000

How Group Meta-Perceptions Shape Political Party Evolution Avery Lord Thu, 06/18/2026 - 09:16

How Group Meta-Perceptions Shape Political Party Evolution

By: Stone Neilon

Abstract:

Political science has documented the extent of (mis)perceptions among partisans, and the sub
sequent effect of these (mis)perceptions on political behavior. However, relatively little work has
examined the extent of group meta-perceptions (GMP)–defined as beliefs about how others perceive
one’s group– and their role in shaping partisan behavior. In this paper, I argue partisans hold
various GMPs and internalize characterizations from out-partisans (and Independents), altering the
perceptions of their own party and influencing their strategic preferences and affective orientations,
providing a novel explanation to issue evolution within the parties. To investigate these dynam
ics, I field an exploratory student survey asking respondents what they believe are the three most
important problems (MIP) and how they believe out-partisans would characterize them on those
same questions. I use this to inform a future experimental survey, where I expose partisans to how
out-partisans (and Independents) perceive and characterize their own party. Respondents are then
assessed on levels of affect, willingness to engage in cross-partisan discussion, and beliefs about party strategy

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Marital Transitions and Political Behavior

Avery Lord — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 15:13:17 +0000

Marital Transitions and Political Behavior Avery Lord Thu, 06/18/2026 - 09:13

Marital Transitions and Political Behavior

By: Stone Neilon, Anand E. Sokhey, Matthew T. Pietryka

Abstract:

In this early draft, we build upon previous political science research documenting the effect of
life events on political behavior, using the ANES 2016-2020-2024 panel dataset to test the effect
of marital status change on a range of political outcomes. We employ OLS and logistic regression
models with lagged dependent variables, finding that moving from unmarried to married is associated
with more liberal attitudes and a greater belief that women experience discrimination in the United
States. Respondents who moved from married to divorced are associated with reduced ideological
extremity. We find no statistically significant effects (p < .05) for respondents moving from married to
widowed; however, suggestive evidence emerges at the p < .10 level for political discussion networks, religious importance, and political affect. We propose two mechanisms through which marital status change exerts its effects: psychological processes and alterations in social networks. Future iterations will include additional model specifications and alternative data sources to better characterize the relationship between marital status change and political behavior.

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Walkability and Voter Turnout

Avery Lord — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 15:10:20 +0000

Walkability and Voter Turnout Avery Lord Thu, 06/18/2026 - 09:10

Walkability and Voter Turnout

By: Stone Nielon, Anand E. Sokhey

Abstract:

Do features of the built environment influence rates of political participation? In this paper we consider the relationship between walkability—i.e.,the ease of walking to amenities in an area—and turnout in the contemporary United States. Focusing on census block groups in the country’s 25 most populated Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), we leverage the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) walkability indices and aggregate voting data from the 2016, 2018, and 2020 election cycles. We find that areas with higher walkability have higher official turnout; this association obtains across primary and general election contests, in the presence of controls for a variety of socioeconomic factors, and under different modeling choices. In subsequent analyses we bring in novel data on the difficulty of voting in states to consider whether the apparent benefits of walkability can be better understood through traditional notions of “cost-based” versus socially-grounded theories of mass behavior. Our results suggest that both explanations have purchase, though on balance we think the evidence points more towards social factors. We discuss the implications of our findings as they relate to both political geography and longstanding theories of democratic functioning.

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